Just Because It Never Worked Before Is No Reason to Try Again

One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Another is this US policy towards the Israel-Palestinian conflict:

Facing a political crisis in the Palestinian Authority, the White House has presented Israel with a list of measures it should take to bolster embattled Palestinian leader Yassir Arafat Mahmoud Abbas.

Abbas &mdash who prefers to go by his terrorist name, Abu Mazen &mdash has announced that he will not run for re-election in January. He may also resign from additional political posts he is currently holding, including the Palestine Liberation Organization's (PLO) Executive Committee and the Fatah Central Committee.

Of course, the Palestinian Authority has also declared that they cannot hold the elections in January, a year late, because Hamas won't play nice in Gaza. This would allow Abu Mazen to indefinitely continue holding the chair to which he has no legal right.

Nevertheless, Abu Mazen's gesture is probably a ploy. He threatens his own resignation and the subsequent collapse of the PA so often, it is only barely newsworthy.

So, why does he do it? Because it gets results. The results may be worthless in any lasting context, but all he cares about is getting results.

He used the same tactic against Arafat, until he actually resigned in 2003. The US brought him back, proving that both parties can be equally stupid when it comes to setting foreign policy with Palestinians.

Usually, though, the White House pressures Israel to make some gestures, removing checkpoints, freeing terrorists, giving money. This leads to a lull in negotiations. Then &mdash when they think Abu Mazen is safe from accusations of tit-for-tat bargaining &mdash Israel makes an offer which the Palestinians refuse. This drags on, violence rises, Palestinians complain, and Abu Mazen threatens to resign.

Here is an example.

On 2 March 2008, Abbas stated he was suspending peace talks with Israel. Four months later, on 20 May 2008, Abbas stated he would resign from his office if the current round of peace talks had not yielded an agreement in principle "within six months". On August 25, Olmert released some 200 prisoners. Shortly thereafter, he made an unbelieveable offer to Abu Mazen who turned it down for no apparent reason.

On 9 January 2009, Abbas's term as president, at least as he was originally elected, ended. Citing Operation Cast Lead, he declared that he could not hold elections, and delayed them for a year. Of course, the fact that his successor should have been inaugurated that day and the fact that no election was even being planned sort of suggests that Operation Cast Lead was an excuse.

The Palestinian elections are scheduled for January 24, 2010. I would not bet a bagel against all the oil in the Middle East that they will happen on time. If they do, I don't care who certifies them, there is no chance of their being free and fair.

And if they are, then Abu Mazen &mdash whose approval rating among Palestinians is somewhat lower than toe fungus &mdash will have no hope of even placing, let alone winning.

But the US keeps trying to "strengthen" the corrupt dictator, usually by forcing Israel to make increasingly dangerous concessions.

So, during Obama and Netanyahu's meeting on 9 November and in other recent exchanges between Washington and Jerusalem, the US has "put forward three fields" in which Israeli concessions could help Abu Mazen show progress results and regain popular support, with the aim of ultimately convincing him to reconsider his decision not to run again for office:

• Early implementation of the agreement on settlement moratorium
• Lifting roadblocks and barriers in the West Bank
• Release from Israeli jails of prisoners affiliated with Fatah

After all, just because it never worked before is no reason not to try again, right?

Wrong.

If Israel announced that, due to Abu Mazen's personal charm and charisma, it was officially disbanding and givein all of Israel to the Palestinians, Abu Mazen still could not win a Palestinian election. If the Hidden Imam appeared riding Muhammed's horse and said, "That's my boy!" Palestinians would not elect Abu Mazen.

And if they did, what good would it do? Abu Mazen has accomplished exactly nothing on the road to peace and prosperity for Palestinians, Israelis, or the rest of the world.

Supporting him has to be insanity. Nothing else explains it.