MEMRI may be one of the finest resources available to us to understand the Arab mind. Their translations of the Arab media are accurate, unbiased, sometimes terrifying, and always respected.
They state that the tape of Osama bin Laden that was aired on Al-Jazeera on Friday, October 29th, included a specific threat to "each U.S. state," designed to influence the outcome of the upcoming election against George W. Bush.
The U.S. media in general mistranslated the words "ay wilaya" (which means "each U.S. state") to mean a "country" or "nation" other than the U.S., while in fact the threat was directed specifically at each individual U.S. state. This suggests some knowledge by bin Laden of the U.S. electoral college system. In a section of his speech in which he harshly criticized George W. Bush, bin Laden stated: "Any U.S. state that does not toy with our security automatically guarantees its own security."
There is more on this topic and it needs to be read. So go read it.
They also claim that this tape actually shows Al Qaeda is running scared:
Another conspicuous aspect of the tape is the absence of common Islamist themes that are relevant to the month of Ramadan, which for fundamentalists like bin Laden is the month of Jihad and martyrdom. Noticeably absent from the Al-Jazeera tape was his usual appearance with a weapon, and more importantly the absence of references to Jihad, martyrdom, the Koran, the Hadith (Islamic tradition), Crusaders, Jews, and the legacy of the Prophet Muhammad on the duty to wage Jihad against the infidels. For the followers of the Al-Qa'ida ideology, this speech sends a regressive and defeatist message of surrender, as seen in the move from solely using Jihad warfare to a mixed strategy of threats combined with truce offers and election deals.
You can read the entire transcripted translation from MEMRI.
The transcript is a blatantly anti-Bush screed. The motives I leave to you to judge.
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